Arizona abortion debate puts key election state into play

What’s happened?

On April 9th the Arizona Supreme Court reinstated a 160-year-old law mandating a near-total abortion ban. The highly publicised and controversial ruling has brought the debate over reproductive rights back into national focus, giving Democrats a strategically important opening ahead of November’s competitive presidential and congressional elections.

Why does it matter?

The court’s decision, which polls suggest is far more conservative than public opinion, will help to put a key election state into play. The Democratic incumbent, Joe Biden, barely won in Arizona in the 2020 elections and currently trails his Republican rival, Donald Trump, by about 4 points in the state’s polls. The revived ban will probably narrow this gap, given Mr Trump’s indirect role in the state court’s ruling; its review was made possible by the US Supreme Court’s 2022 decision overturning federal abortion rights, which itself resulted from Mr Trump’s conservative court appointments. Abortion is now set to be a top campaign issue, with Democrats planning a November referendum to enshrine reproductive rights in Arizona’s state constitution. This could give Mr Biden an edge if it mobilises key voting demographics, as during the 2022-23 elections. The same may be true for Democrats in the competitive race to fill Arizona’s open US Senate (upper house) seat, which will help to determine the composition of the currently divided Congress.

The episode comes at a sensitive time for the Republican Party as Mr Trump begins his first of several criminal trials (he denies all wrongdoing). This could further compromise his standing with moderate Republicans and independents who remain unconvinced about his candidacy.

What next?

Arizona’s abortion ban will take effect within 60 days unless the state legislature repeals it. Regardless, the upcoming state referendum means that the issue will remain in national discourse ahead of the elections, particularly as other states (including Florida) pursue similar ballot measures. This will work to Democrats’ advantage, reinforcing our view that Mr Biden will win. However, the party will still have to contend with other more competitive campaign issues, including the economy and immigration, highlighting the fact that the upcoming elections will remain extremely close.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this video can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.