lagos at dawn

Bola Tinubu wins Nigeria’s presidential election

Bola Tinubu, the candidate of Nigeria’s ruling party, the All Progressives Congress, won the presidential election on February 25th, and will be sworn in as president on May 29th. Although the opposition has vowed to contest the result, citing what they claimed were irregularities, Mr Tinubu’s election dovetails with our forecast. His support for a fiscally expansionist policy is already noted in our forecast, but we believe that tax rises will be required in any case.

As no candidate won a majority of votes in the presidential election, it is unsurprising that the results are being contested. The results confirm Nigeria’s long-apparent polarisation along ethnic and religious lines, and highlight the disengagement of large numbers of Nigerians from the political system, with less than 27% of registered voters turning out to vote in the election. The election count was not smoothly conducted. It had been claimed that a new electronic voting system would speed up the release of the results, which would be available in real time, but in the event, no real-time release on the Independent National Electoral Commission website was available, and the vote count was drawn out. However, claims of irregularities appear to lack sufficient foundation, and we believe that challenges to the result will be unsuccessful.

Nigeria has an unusual electoral system in that the winning candidate needs to win a plurality of votes and also win at least 25% of votes in more than two‑thirds of Nigeria’s states. This means that Mr Tinubu won the election with just 36.6% of the popular vote. This may reflect his cross-regional appeal, as both a southern Yoruba and a Muslim. His main challengers, Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, took 29.1% and 25.4% of the vote respectively.

The new president will inherit myriad political, security and, above all, economic challenges. Extremely tough decisions—including the removal of hugely expensive fuel subsidies and an increase in value-added tax (VAT)—will have to be taken very quickly. This will immediately make the incoming president extremely unpopular, and could quickly spark large nationwide protests. However, implementation of essential economic reforms will make Africa’s most populous country a much more attractive destination for foreign investors.

Votes for Mr Tinubu were largely in the west and centre of the country and in a few northern provinces, with the north largely supporting Mr Abubakar. Mr Obi won several provinces in the centre and south, including the capital, Abuja, and the economic capital, Lagos.

There is a risk that opposition parties’ refusal to accept the result could lead to civil disorder, but we believe that the result will gradually become accepted. Mr Tinubu will attempt to embark on an expansionary policy that will include using the central bank as a de facto development agency, although he has stated that he will end petrol subsidies, and the fiscal deficit will be reined in over 2023‑27.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this piece can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.