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Can Fico Gutiérrez defeat Gustavo Petro?


As Colombia’s presidential election gets closer, it has become increasingly clear that the left-wing senator, Gustavo Petro, who has long led in the polls, and Federico “Fico” Gutiérrez, who emerged from the March primary election as the most competitive right-wing candidate, will fight a close race. Mr Petro has around 35% of voting intentions compared with just under 25% for Mr Gutiérrez, a situation that will (as EIU has long forecast) take the dispute to a second-round run-off on June 19th, when the two leading candidates from the first round will run neck and neck. At the start of the year, we assessed the second-round vote as Mr Petro’s to lose and, on balance, we still think this is the case. However, Mr Gutiérrez  clearly also has a chance of victory.

Proximity to the right is Mr Gutiérrez’s main liability

Prior to the congressional and primary elections on March 13th, Mr Gutiérrez’s support in opinion polls was virtually non-existent, hovering around 3-4%. This picture changed after his nomination as the candidate of the right-wing Equipo por Colombia coalition. Since then, his voting intentions have climbed consistently, while those of other, better-known candidates such as the centrist Sergio Fajardo and the right-wing Rodolfo Hernández, who both had voter support of around 10% before the primaries, have either stalled or declined. Meanwhile, support for Mr Petro, who leads the left-wing Pacto Histórico coalition, has increased further, underscoring the growing polarisation of Colombia’s political environment.  

In light of this scenario of extreme division, the key question that has emerged is: can the 47-year-old leader of the Equipo por Colombia coalition overcome Mr Petro’s head start and win the election? Based on recent polls, which have shown a virtual tie between Mr Petro and Mr Gutiérrez in a second-round run-off, the answer to this question is undoubtedly yes. We believe that the election is still Mr Petro’s to lose, given the high probability that Mr Gutiérrez will be associated with the traditional political groups that have long dominated the country’s politics, and with whom voters have grown increasingly disappointed, given the persistence of problems such as violence, poverty and income inequality. 

Mr Gutiérrez has been more successful in reaching out to the centre

The proximity of Mr Gutiérrez, a former mayor of Medellín, to the mainstream political parties has been underscored by the prompt support he received from the ruling Centro Democrático after he was nominated as the presidential candidate of Equipo por Colombia with close to 2.2m votes (54.1% of the coalition’s 4.1m). Initially, this support was largely symbolic and was reflected mainly in the decision of Oscar Iván Zuluaga, the candidate of the ruling Centro Democrático (CD), to give up his candidacy to join Mr Gutiérrez’s campaign. Since then, however, even the current (largely unpopular) centre-right president, Iván Duque, has suggested that Mr Gutiérrez is his preferred candidate. Although Mr Gutiérrez, who is not affiliated to any political party, has tried to present himself as an independent candidate, it will be difficult for him to convince voters of his outsider status amid the right wing’s effort to rally behind him (and prevent a Petro victory). 

Nevertheless, Mr Gutiérrez has also made notable progress in forging alliances with centrists, which partly explains his growing momentum and will further boost his chances against Mr Petro, who has been less successful in reaching out to the centre. The varying degrees of success of the two candidates on this front is influenced by their choice of vice-presidents. Mr Gutiérrez appointed Rodrigo Lara Sánchez, a former mayor of Neiva and member of the centrist Alianza Verde party, as his running mate. This move can be seen as an attempt to acknowledge the importance of intermediate cities and regions in Colombia, whose autonomy has weakened during Mr Duque’s government, but also as an attempt to get closer to the political centre ground, given that Mr Sánchez is a former ally of Mr Fajardo. By contrast, Mr Petro chose Francia Márquez, a left-wing Afro-Colombian activist who is also part of Pacto Histórico—and, therefore, unlikely to attract centrist voters—as his running mate.

Another interesting move by Mr Gutiérrez was to add Carlos Negret, a former national ombudsman in charge of overseeing the government’s human-rights policies, to his team of advisors. Whereas Mr Gutiérrez himself was very critical of the protests that swept the country in mid-2021, Mr Negret criticised the government’s repressive reaction to the movement. The addition of Mr Negret to his team can be interpreted as an attempt by Mr Gutiérrez to soften his conservative image and reinforce the narrative that his goal is to unify the country. Along the same vein, he has also moderated his criticism of the peace accord with the left-wing FARC guerrilla movement, an agreement that has generated a huge amount of debate in Colombia in recent years, with right-wing groups broadly critical of the deal. Mr Gutiérrez has emphasised that, if elected, he will enforce its implementation, which has made only piecemeal progress under Mr Duque. This stance will probably make him unappealing to some sectors of the right that strongly oppose the agreement, but should help him attract further support from centrists. 

Mr Petro remains the favourite, but the game may change

However, it is early to gauge whether these moves will be enough to convince voters that Mr Gutiérrez can bring about the transformation they long for. Both the support he has received from the right of the political spectrum to date and his views on other issues—such as his aggressive rhetoric against Venezuela and local insurgent groups—suggest that, in many aspects, his government would represent continuity, rather than change. Mr Petro will use these developments, as well as Mr Gutiérrez’s previous statements against protesters and social movements, against him, particularly after the first round, when attention will be focused more squarely on Mr Gutiérrez (who, unlike Mr Petro, was previously a relative unknown). 

Although we still think that Mr Petro is better positioned to catalyse the change desired by many Colombians, we believe that Mr Gutiérrez has the potential to affect the outcome of the election. If he continues to make progress in attracting support from centrist voters who fear Mr Petro’s radical proposals—including an end to oil exploration and a massive increase in public spending—his chances of defeating the left-wing senator and becoming Colombia’s next president will improve. We will continue to monitor the campaign closely in the coming weeks and will make our final call on the election result after the first round.

More award-winning political analysis on Colombia’s presidential election can be found in EIU Viewpoint, our new analysis service. EIU Viewpoint provides unmatched forecasts, analysis and data for nearly 200 countries, helping organisations identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.