Europe: elections to watch in 2024
- Europe will see nine parliamentary elections in 2024, of which four are likely to result in a notable change in government and/or policy direction. We expect political fragmentation to remain a key trend in Europe next year. Governments are finding it increasingly difficult to command stable working majorities, and those countries governed by coalitions are likely to have to rely on large multiparty agreements. Policymaking will remain constrained by the challenges of minority government (France), instability and in-fighting (Germany and Austria), a recent coalition collapse (the Netherlands) or a reliance on small hardline parties (Spain).
- Rising disaffection with the political establishment increases the likelihood that mainstream parties will co-opt some of the more radical policies espoused by the far right and far left (particularly on immigration) into their policy platforms. The far right is also likely to make gains, particularly in Austria, where we expect it to enter government after the September 2024 election, potentially as the largest party. Portugal will hold a snap poll in March after the government collapsed this month, and as things stand the right-wing bloc, supported by the far-right Chega (Enough), has the best chance of forming the next government. Polls also indicate that far-right parties will make substantial gains in the European Parliament elections in June 2024. This is likely to influence the EU’s policy stance on issues such as immigration, climate change and EU enlargement.
- The most significant election in Europe in 2024 will be in the UK, where anti-incumbency sentiment is strong, and we expect voters to return a Labour Party government. The government could theoretically delay an election until January 2025, but by far the most likely date is in the fourth quarter of 2024. The Conservative Party has been in office for almost 14 years, but the opposition Labour Party is leading in polls of voting intentions by a huge margin (more than 20 percentage points). Even if this lead shrinks over the course of 2024 as the economy stabilises and inflation edges down, we still expect Labour to secure a working majority.
The analysis and forecasts featured in this piece can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.