Europe’s busy election calendar

  • After the European Parliament elections in early June, Europe’s busy electoral summer continues with a two-round snap French vote and the UK general election. In the UK, a win for the centre-left opposition Labour Party appears a foregone conclusion after 14 years of Conservative rule. A large majority should enable progress on Labour’s modest tax-and-spend agenda, boosting British investment. In contrast, the outcome of the French legislative vote is highly uncertain. A hung parliament with a prime minister from a broad alliance of mainstream parties is the most likely outturn, but we assign a 40% probability to a far-right French prime minister—a scenario that is prompting market jitters. In either case, policymaking is likely to stall.
  • The rise in support for the far right that was evident in the European Parliament elections will also create headlines in the Austrian general election in September. The Freedom Party (currently a junior partner in the government) is leading in the polls and will emerge as the largest party in the Austrian coalition after the vote—although its ability to influence policy (in particular towards a stricter stance on migration) will be tempered by who it governs with. The other country where we see the potential for a shift in policy later this year is Lithuania. There the centre-right coalition is set to be replaced by a centre-left administration—although the country’s pro-NATO, pro-EU and pro-business positioning will not change.
  • The presidential elections that are approaching will be less significant than the legislative votes, as these roles are mostly ceremonial. However, the probable re-election in October of the pro-EU Maia Sandu in Moldova is noteworthy, as it will coincide with a referendum on the country’s continued pro-EU path, which we expect to be successful. Moldova’s trajectory stands in marked contrast to developments in Georgia, where the government’s recent passing of a foreign agents law puts any hope of future EU accession in jeopardy. We expect the current government to be re-elected in a vote that is neither free nor fair.
  • Other votes to watch out for are the German regional elections in September, where the far right will do well, and mainstream parties will be forced to decide whether to break the current taboo against co-operation—a significant decision in view of the approaching federal election in 2025. We also expect a snap election in Ireland this autumn, and there is a risk of an early vote in Portugal. Still, the election that will have the biggest impact on the outlook for the region will not be in Europe at all, but in the US in November, where polls suggest the result is on a knife edge.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this article are accessible through EIU’s Country Analysis service. This comprehensive solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify potential opportunities and risks effectively.