China economic outlook

Global Outlook: China’s Communist Party congress


In EIU’s latest global outlook video Agathe Demarais, the EIU’s global forecasting director, and Nick Marro, our lead for global trade and China analyst, discuss some key takeaways from China’s Communist Party congress and what these mean for the country’s economic outlook.

As our analysts expected, China’s party congress signalled continuity. Investors normally view continuity as a positive thing. However, in this instance, continuity means that China’s zero covid stance is here to stay and that there is no appetite within the Chinese leadership for major changes to economic policy or for market reforms.

Zero-covid is among the most consequential factors driving China’s economic slowdown and we expect this policy to persist in 2023. As a result, we now expect that the country will register real GDP growth of only 3.3% this year. Our experts believe that China’s growth will trend below 5% per year over the remainder of the 2020s. 

“Given China’s role as the world’s second-largest economy, the country’s economic slowdown has huge consequences for global demand. That’s a big change from what we saw in the years both immediately after the global financial crisis and in the intervening decade since. This will carry consequences for exporters ranging from Germany to Taiwan to Australia, who have all become very dependent on the Chinese market.”

Nick Marro, lead for global trade, EIU

Learn more about China’s Communist Party congress with EIU Viewpoint, our new analysis service. EIU Viewpoint provides unmatched global insights for nearly 200 countries, six industries and 25 critical commodities, helping organisations identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.