US political outlook 2022

Global Outlook: takeaways from the US midterms


In EIU’s latest global outlook video, global forecasting director, Agathe Demarais, and our global economist, Cailin Birch, discuss some of the key takeaways from the recent US midterm elections.

The midterms’ results were good news for the Democrats, as they outperformed expectations.  High voter turnout, at around 50%, is another key takeaway. However, increasing participation also reflects growing political polarisation. 

With a divided US Congress, we expect little in the way of substantial legislation in the coming two years. Instead, the main story will be the race for the Republican nomination. Having previously been on firm footing, Donald Trump, the former US president, now faces a fierce challenge from Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor.

“There is a significant risk that the race for the Republican nomination could lead to factionalism in Congress. The party will struggle to get on the same page on policy making while fighting to decide who the Republican presidential candidate will be for the 2024 race.”

Cailin birch, global economist, EIU

Learn more about our political outlook for the US through EIU Viewpoint, our new analysis service. EIU Viewpoint provides unmatched global insights for nearly 200 countries, six industries and 25 critical commodities, helping organisations identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.