Global Outlook: predictions on the next phase of the Israel-Hamas war

In EIU’s latest Global Outlook video, editorial director of the Middle East and Africa, Pat Thaker, and senior analyst, Keren Uziyel, discuss predictions, potential outcomes and latest updates for the next phase of the Israel-Hamas war.

Since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th, Israel has made significant inroads into degrading Hamas’s capabilities but could extend its Gaza campaign in Palestine southwards to further weaken the group. Israel intends to resume its military operations, and the war in Israel is far from resolution in the near term. However, we expect the issue of remaining hostages coupled with growing international pressure on Israel over the impact of the war on civilians to constrain Israel’s ability to meet its stated goal of destroying Hamas.

“The destruction of Hamas leaves the question of what will come next. EIU expects the Gulf economies, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, will continue to play an economic role in the reconstruction of Gaza but will also look to guide whatever political settlement comes next.”

keren uziyel, senior analyst, MEA, EIU

However, the Israel-Hamas war coupled with the recent Israeli air strike on the Beit Yahoun area in southern Lebanon, which killed five members of Hizbullah, an Iranian-backed Lebanese Shia group, could lead to further escalation. Israel is reluctant to place strain on its resources by fighting on two fronts, while Hizbullah risks damaging its domestic status as well as depleting its capabilities, if a full‑scale war breaks out. However, the potential for miscalculation, such as hitting a sensitive target by mistake, is high and could lead to uncontrolled either localised or regional escalation of the Israel war. International efforts to ease the risk of a wider conflagration will intensify.

The analysis and forecasts on the Israel-Hamas war featured in this piece can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.