global trade

Global Outlook: the latest on global trade

In The Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) latest global outlook video, Agathe Demarais, Nick Marro and Agnese Ortolani discuss the latest trade developments.

Trade held up better in 2020 than The Economist Intelligence Unit initially expected, contracting by an estimated 8.2%. By comparison, trade dropped by 11.8% during the global financial crisis in 2008-09. This was primarily helped by the resilience of Asian economies, where early success in pandemic mitigation allowed several countries to avoid prolonged lockdowns that would have disrupted production. The EIU’s lead analyst Nick Marro outlines what to expect for global trade in 2021 and discusses the impact of “vaccine protectionism” on geopolitics.

Focusing on Europe, EU trade contracted by around 10% in 2020. Senior analyst Agnese Ortolani talks through our Europe trade forecast for this year and examines the future of EU-China and EU-US relations under the Biden presidency.

To find out more about the political, policy and economic outlook in these countries, check out our country analysis and five-year forecasts. With detailed reports available for more than 190 countries around the world, our insights provide truly global coverage to help you to prepare for what’s ahead.