Israeli entry to Golan Heights buffer zone angers Egypt

What’s happened?

Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has lambasted the movement of Israel’s military into the Golan Heights demilitarised zone (a buffer strip straddling the Israeli-Syrian border), following the collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Israel claims that it was a necessary and temporary manoeuvre to prevent hostile forces from occupying positions abandoned by the now-defunct Syrian army. Egypt claims that advances into Syria’s side of the Golan Heights violate a 1974 armistice that ended the Yom Kippur war—in which Egypt fought—and has demanded that the UN Security Council act. The UN, which monitors the buffer strip, has similarly expressed grave concerns.

Why does it matter?

The occupation of the Golan Heights has urgent significance for Egypt, as Israel has also taken control of a small area of territory within the Philadelphi corridor in Gaza that borders Egypt, in contravention of a 2005 accord. Egypt is anxious that the Israel-Hizbullah war and rapid regime change in Syria should not divert international attention away from the Gaza border issue, possibly for good as Israel’s war with Hamas slowly winds down. Besides the possibility of mishaps between Israeli and Egyptian forces along the border—there have already been instances of live fire being exchanged—Egypt’s ultimate fear is that Israel will open the border to refugees, leading to an influx of Palestinians who would need to be resettled in the Sinai. By focusing the international community’s mind on the Golan Heights in Syria, Egypt might hope to loop the conversation back to Israel’s occupation in Gaza.

Relations between Israel and Egypt are at an all-time low since the two established peace in 1979, owing to Egypt’s frustration with Israel’s conduct in Gaza. However, realpolitik will keep Israeli-Egyptian ties alive. Egypt wants a role in the political reconstruction with Gaza and also wishes to avoid rupturing important ties with the US, which supplies military aid and concessional finance. To a lesser extent, Egypt’s need for Israeli natural gas is also a factor. The moment for Egypt to fully sever ties with Israel has already passed, in our view, barring major unforeseen regional tensions developing. Taking aim at Israel over the Golan Heights also helps to appease an anti-Israeli domestic audience without a realistic prospect of Egypt incurring diplomatic damage.

What next?

Egypt will continue to regard Israel’s presence across the Gaza border as a foreign policy priority, but its scope to force a withdrawal is limited, especially as plans for what comes after the war with Hamas concludes remain at an embryonic stage. We also expect Israel to be under less pressure than now after Donald Trump assumes the presidency of the US in January.

The analysis and forecasts presented in this article are drawn from EIU’s Country Analysis service. This comprehensive solution offers essential insights into the political and economic outlook of nearly 200 countries, empowering businesses to manage risks and develop effective strategies.