Macron to face Le Pen in French election run-off

Article tags PoliticsEurope

• Following the first-round vote on April 10th, Emmanuel Macron, the incumbent, and Marine Le Pen, the main far-right candidate, have qualified for the second round of the presidential election, to be held on April 24th.  
• The complete collapse of the mainstream parties, with over half of voters choosing a radical or anti-system candidate, highlights the startling degree of political disillusionment in France. Neither Mr Macron nor Ms Le Pen has enthused the electorate or won a strong mandate for their policy plans.
• Mr Macron leads in the second-round polls, and we expect him to win, but the race could be tight. The transfer of votes from the third-place candidate, the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon, as well as turnout and performance in the debate on April 20th, will be key to the result.
• How effective the winner will prove in office will depend on the results of the parliamentary election in June. We expect Mr Macron’s party to lose seats, rendering policymaking more difficult, although still centrist and pro-business.

In the run-up to the first round of voting, support rose for the three front-runners: Mr Macron, Ms Le Pen and Mr Mélenchon. Support for Mr Mélenchon began to surge as left-wing voters transferred their votes to him. Ms Le Pen gained ground on her far-right rival, Éric Zemmour. In the final result, Mr Macron marginally exceeded his lead in the polls, receiving 27.8 % of the vote; Ms Le Pen received 23.2% and Mr Mélenchon was in closer than expected third place, with 22%. In contrast, support for Valérie Pécresse plummeted; the Les Républicains (LR) candidate only just held on to fifth place with 4.8%, well behind Mr Zemmour (7.1%) in fourth and just ahead of the green candidate, Yannick Jadot (4.6%), in sixth. The Parti socialiste (PS) candidate, Anne Hidalgo, ended in a humiliating tenth place, with 1.8% of the vote.

The collapse of the traditional parties of the mainstream left and right reflected, in part, a degree of tactical voting. Mr Mélenchon ran a slick and tech-savvy campaign, but also benefited from being seen as the left-wing candidate with the strongest chance of reaching the second round in an unusually crowded field. Meanwhile, on the right, some LR voters switched allegiance to Mr Macron to ensure the presence of a mainstream candidate in the second round, given Ms Pécresse’s weak performance in the polls and that her campaign never really took off. On the far right, Ms Le Pen’s long-term strategy of detoxifying the party’s brand is paying off, as is her focus on the cost of living at a time of rising inflation and fuel prices. At the same time, Mr Zemmour’s more radical campaign has served to make her look more moderate—and more credible—in comparison. 

The collapse of mainstream candidates implies a fractious political scene

Tactical voting explains only a part of the collapse of mainstream parties. The dismal performance of Ms Hidalgo has cemented the PS’s collapse since 2017, when Benoît Hamon won 6.4% of the vote (in part because the working-class vote splintered, with a substantial share going to Ms Le Pen). Similarly, the poor performance of Ms Pécresse reinforces LR’s struggle to hold on to the support of its traditional electorate, with Mr Macron stealing centrist votes and Ms Le Pen attracting those from the traditional right. The failure of Ms Pécresse to even reach the bar of 5% also has financial implications. Candidates who score above 5% of the vote are reimbursed for their costs of up to €8m; those below this threshold are reimbursed up to only €800,000. Therefore LR will take a financial hit of more than €7m, which will hurt the party in the run-up to the parliamentary election in June.

One of the more startling outcomes of the first round was that a majority of voters cast their vote for a radical or anti-system candidate. Ms Le Pen, Mr Mélenchon, Mr Zemmour, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (another far-right candidate) and the two Trotskyist candidates together received 55.8% of the vote. With a large abstention rate (26.3%), this reveals the extent of political disillusionment in France. As a result of an underwhelming election campaign and Ukraine dominating the headlines, the turnout was four points lower than in 2017, at 73.7%; blank and spoiled ballots were also at high levels and nearly half of young voters abstained. Nonetheless, the overall abstention rate was lower than many polls had suggested before the vote.

Mobilising left-leaning voters will be critical for Macron to win the second round

The task now for both candidates is to persuade voters that they can rise to the many challenges facing France. In line with the usual second-round voting patterns in France, the desire to block the far right from office will lead many to vote for Mr Macron despite their antipathy towards him. A poll conducted by Ipsos, a research company, on the evening of the first round found that 34% of Mr Mélenchon’s voters planned to vote for Mr Macron in the second round, 30% for Ms Le Pen and 36% had not decided. In the last two weeks of the campaign, we expect Mr Macron to prioritise reaching out to left-leaning voters, as well as stressing the weaknesses of Ms Le Pen—including her long-standing links to Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, which she has downplayed recently as they are now a liability.

The transfer of votes following the first round will be important. With many voters still undecided, the results are not entirely predictable. Several candidates, including Ms Pécresse, Ms Hidalgo, Mr Jadot and Fabien Roussel, the communist candidate, have thrown their weight behind Mr Macron. Mr Zemmour and Mr Dupont-Aignan have declared their support for Ms Le Pen. The most important transfer of votes will come from those who had voted for Mr Mélenchon, with more than a fifth of the vote at stake. Mr Mélenchon repeated three times in his election-night speech that not a single vote should go to Ms Le Pen. He did not, however, go as far as to urge a vote for Mr Macron, instead implicitly allowing a choice between Mr Macron and abstention.

Mr Macron is not assured of victory in the second round. Mr Mélenchon’s core demographic includes many younger and working-class voters who could be tempted by Ms Le Pen, especially given her emphasis on the cost-of-living crisis in her campaign. She has also described the second round as an “anti-Macron referendum” to appeal to the frustrated. Many more may simply choose not to vote, with the risk that abstention will remain high in the second round. Turnout was low in the first round not only among groups that tend to be disaffected, but also among the traditional supporters of the mainstream parties, who had voted for Mr Macron in 2017 but have become disillusioned with him and are reluctant to support him again.

What to watch—further shifts in the polls and the televised debate

The polls suggest that the second round could end up being a tight race, and some surveys have found that the two candidates are now within the margin of error. Both our calculations and the polls suggest that Mr Macron will win more votes than Ms Le Pen, even with high abstention, but risks still remain. The televised debate on April 20th will attract a large audience and be influential, especially for voters who are still undecided. In 2017 this debate was Ms Le Pen’s undoing; the question is whether she will be able to put in a more convincing performance this time.

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Wed, 20th Apr 2022 Article tags PoliticsEurope