NATO summit fails to “Trump-proof” its Ukraine support

What’s happened?

At the NATO summit in Washington, DC, on July 9th-11th, member states reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine’s eventual admission to the alliance, upgrading previous communiqué language to state that the country’s path to membership was “irreversible”. However, member states retained their previous position (agreed at the 2023 NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania’s capital) not to extend a formal membership invitation to Ukraine. The alliance also agreed a one-year, €40bn (US$43.6bn) pledge for further Ukrainian military aid, and will expand its role co-ordinating the training and equipping of Ukrainian troops through a new military command in Wiesbaden, Germany. The alliance also escalated its rhetoric against China, accusing it of being a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war against Ukraine through its transfer of inputs and raw materials to Russia’s defence sector.

Why does it matter?

The summit does not alter our judgement that Russia is in a position to make slow but steady territorial gains in Ukraine over the rest of the year, because the additional aid is unlikely to be sufficient to allow Ukraine to take the offensive. Ukraine is likely to be frustrated by continued US and German emphasis on accompanying democratic and security sector reforms as a condition for admission to the alliance. Despite the “irreversible” language, the Washington communiqué does not substantially alter the position agreed last year in Vilnius. The summit’s €40bn package was also significantly watered down from NATO’s originally proposed €100bn multi-year fund.

The future of Western support for Ukraine and the role of NATO is uncertain. The US president, Joe Biden, who has been a strong advocate of support for Ukraine, faces a challenging re-election in November. His rival, Donald Trump, would, if elected, seek to reduce—if not eliminate—US aid for Ukraine. Mr Trump’s administration would also probably attempt to broker Ukraine-Russia negotiations, in a manner that could cause concern among other NATO members. Existing tensions within the alliance over some member states not meeting established targets for overall defence spending and expenditure on equipment will also intensify under Mr Trump. Political changes in Europe following recent elections also present some risks to Western support for Ukraine, including the success of the far-left La France insoumise (LFI) in France’s recent legislative election.

Security anxieties regarding China have the potential to provide NATO with purpose beyond the challenges posed by Ukraine. On this front, the branding of China as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war against Ukraine supports the growing view that China is central to European security and NATO’s future. There is still a high risk that Western punitive actions will be expanded against China in 2024-28, given that country’s close (but uncomfortable) relationship with Russia. This could result in European sanctions against Chinese firms that allegedly supply Russia with weapons and equipment, following the application of similar US measures on China in recent months. It will also generate further support for expanding NATO co-operation with its Indo-Pacific partners, Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, who already have their own initiatives covering Ukraine, cyber-defence, countering disinformation and technology.

What next?

NATO’s incoming secretary-general, the former Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, will begin his term in October. Among his first tasks will be to foster relations with new political leaders in Europe and, potentially, a new president in the US. Mr Rutte has worked effectively with Mr Trump in the past, and he is likely to push NATO’s national governments to increase defence spending to fend off US criticism. In our view, Mr Trump’s previous threat to withdraw the US from NATO is highly unlikely to materialise.

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