Turkey Country Report

Political instability likely to follow Turkish elections

  • A clear result is by no means guaranteed in the Turkish elections on May 14th. The alliance that wins the presidential contest is likely to fail to obtain a majority in parliament.
  • If the president lacks a parliamentary majority, he will be able to run the country on a day-to-day basis, but will need to negotiate with other parties to pass laws and budgets.
  • A legislative deadlock could force the president to call a snap election. However, this would be risky for both alliances, as presidential and parliamentary elections would again need to be held simultaneously.
  • A much larger crisis will arise if either of the main alliances refuses to accept the outcome of the election. In this event, the incumbent, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, would probably remain in office amid public protests, potential violence and future uncertainty. 

The simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14th will pit Mr Erdogan against the candidate of the opposition, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Despite having the incumbency advantage, Mr Erdogan will face a particularly tough challenge.

The current situation shows no clear outcome

Mr Erdogan has formed the Public Alliance, which brings together his own Justice and Development Party (AKP), his far-right ally the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and four other mainly conservative parties. Mr Kilicdaroglu is backed by the centrist Nation Alliance made up of six parties including his own Republican People’s Party (CHP) and Meral Aksener’s Good Party (IP). The CHP leader also has the explicit backing of the Labour and Freedom Alliance dominated by Green Left Party (YSP)—a proxy for the mainly-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which has decided to compete under the YSP banner as it faces closure. Although the opposition is more united than ever before, neither Mr Erdogan nor Mr Kilicdaroglu is likely to win the 50% share of the vote necessary to avoid a second presidential ballot on May 28th. Meanwhile, numerous other opposition parties are competing for parliamentary seats. These elections are particularly difficult to forecast and in this analysis we set out scenarios for what may unfold.

Governing with a majority would give either side a free hand

A clear result would mean either re-election for Mr Erdogan and a parliamentary majority for his Public Alliance, or victory for Mr Kilicdaroglu and a parliamentary majority for the Nation Alliance. The winners could then put their domestic policies and foreign policies into effect. 

Table setting out consequences for each candidate of governing with a majority

A president without a majority would have vast executive powers, but there would be significant uncertainty 

Turkey has an executive presidential system. A mixed result, with the president lacking a majority in parliament, would therefore mean that the president would still be able to form a government and manage the country on a day-to-day basis. Nevertheless, he would have some difficulties in implementing some of his policies, as he would need to negotiate with other parties to pass some laws and budgets. As each side would attempt to block the other’s policy agenda, the situation would bring about high policy uncertainty.

Table setting out consequences for each candidate of governing without a majority

Sooner or later, another election might be needed to resolve a mismatch between the presidency and the parliament. However, calling snap elections could lead to further stalemate.

  • Constitutionally, an early parliamentary election can be called either by the president or by a three-fifths majority in parliament, but in either case a presidential election must be held at the same time.
  • If Mr Kilicdaroglu, as president, were to call a parliamentary election, he could seek another term as president. This is not the case for Mr Erdogan, since he has already had two terms in office—even without counting his first election in 2014, before the constitution was changed and the presidential system of government introduced.
  • An early presidential election is only held if the post falls vacant. Impeaching a president requires a two-thirds majority in parliament.

Cohabiting could be particularly difficult if one of the two main alliances wins the presidency and the other commands an overall majority in parliament. This sub-scenario is unlikely but by no means impossible, given the electoral system.

Disputing the results would bring high risk of instability

There is a high risk that the outcomes of the elections will not be recognised by the losing side, particularly if the results are very close (up to 2% difference).

  • Opposition supporters believe rigging and manipulation have occurred in past elections and regard the election authorities as close to the current administration. This was especially the case when in 2019 the victory of the CHP candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu, in the Istanbul mayoral election was overruled, and the Supreme Election Council ordered a re-run.
  • Some of Mr Erdogan’s aides have made comments suggesting they might not accept the election result. The interior minister, Suleyman Soylu, for example, has equated an opposition victory with a “coup”. 

The results of the parliamentary and/or presidential elections could also be disputed. In the case of the presidency, Mr Kilicdaroglu might not accept defeat or Mr Erdogan might refuse to step down. In either case, Mr Erdogan would remain in office, and probably in control of the state apparatus, and the onus would be on the Nation Alliance to try to reverse this situation.

Popular protests might well occur spontaneously but could be hard to sustain in the longer term. A battle of nerves and consciences would ensue, with no obvious compromise solutions. Government and public services would largely continue to operate and interruptions to economic life might be limited, but future uncertainty would be intense, there would be high risks of violence, investment would be discouraged and relations with the West could be strained.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this piece can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the economic, political and policy outlook for nearly 200 countries, helping organisations identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.