Q4 GDP nowcast jumps as the manufacturing outlook strengthens Thu, 03rd Dec 2020 Article tags EconomyAmericas The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q4 2020 further improved to 1.97% (quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, compared with 0.94% during the week ending 13th November. Manufacturers’ new orders of durable goods rose by 1.27% (month-on-month), while manufacturers’ inventories of durable goods rose by 0.30% (month-on-month) and manufacturers’ unfilled orders of durable goods fell by 0.26% (month-on-month).Exports rose by 2.81% (month-on-month) compared with September, the highest since March 2020, while imports also rose by 1.87%(month-on-month).Real disposable personal income fell marginally by 0.76% while real personal consumption expenditures rose marginally by 0.49%(month-on-month) in comparison with September.Manufacturing PMI from IHS Markit rose to 56.95 for November, the highest since September of 2014. Services PMI rose to 57.69 for November, the highest since March 2015.Consumer confidence indicators from the Conference Board for November fell in comparison with the month of October as the US faces a resurgence in Covid-19 cases initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 778,000 for the third week of November compared with last week’s 748,000. To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below. Data releases (last week) IndicatorsReference PeriodLatest dataPrevious dataManufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$)Oct (20’)240769.00237751.00Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Oct (20’)422751.00421494.00Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Oct (20’)1073151.001075902.00Exports, f.a.s.: Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$)Oct (20’)125986.50122546.40Imports, Customs Value: Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$)Oct (20’)206274.30201901.50New Pvt Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit [Actual](SAAR, Thous.Units)Oct (20’)1544.001545.00Real Disposable Personal Income (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$)Oct (20’)15682.9015803.60Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$)Oct (20’)13108.9013045.50University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [Actual] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Nov (20’)76.9081.80University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions [Actual] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Nov (20’)87.0085.90University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations [Actual] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Nov (20’)70.5079.20Conference Board: Consumer Confidence (SA, 1985=100)Nov (20’)96.10101.40Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Present Situation (SA, 1985=100)Nov (20’)105.90106.20Conference Board: Consumer Expectations (SA, 1985=100)Nov (20’)89.5098.20US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Flash] [Latest Estimates incl Flash] (SA, 50 +=Expansion)Nov (20’)56.6553.36US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Flash] [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion)Nov (20’)57.6956.95Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Nov (20’)778.00757.00 Data releases (current week) IndicatorsReference PeriodRelease DateUS Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Actual] [Latest Estimates incl Flash] (SA, 50 +=Expansion)Nov (20’)1st Dec 2020ISM Mfg: PMI Composite Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Expand)Nov (20’)1st Dec 2020ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (SA Change, Thous.)Nov (20’)2nd Dec 2020ISM Non Manufacturing : NMI Composite Index (SA, +50=Increasing)Nov (20’)3rd Dec 2020US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Actual] [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion)Nov (20’)3rd Dec 2020Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Nov (20’)3rd Dec 2020Change in Nonfarm Payrolls excluding the Effect of Strikes (SA, Thous)Nov (20’)4th Dec 2020Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$)Oct (20’)4th Dec 2020Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Actual] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Oct (20’)4th Dec 2020Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Actual] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Oct (20’)4th Dec 2020 Contact us To find out more about The EIU’s Nowcasting capabilities, fill in the form below and a member of our team will contact you. Thu, 03rd Dec 2020 Article tags EconomyAmericas