Russia Country Report

Russia’s pockets of support are growing in the developing world

Analysis by EIU’s global forecasting team shows that an increasing number of countries are siding with Russia.

  • EIU has updated a map that we first published last year to assess the level of support for Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. The map highlights which countries support Russia; which side with Western states; and which fall in between. Many countries who saw themselves as neutral or non-aligned have since changed their stance since the start of the invasion.

“Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, we have monitored the evolution of global support or hostility towards Russia, notably by non-aligned, neutral countries. Using a long-term lens, we have assessed the enforcement of sanctions, UN voting patterns, domestic political trends, official statements, as well as economic, political, military and historical ties.”

CODY FELDMAN, SENIOR ANALYST, GLOBAL FORECASTING AT EIU

  • Over the past year the number of countries actively condemning Russia has fallen from 131 to 122, as some emerging economies have shifted to a neutral position. This US- and EU-led bloc, which represents about 36% of the global population, has exhibited a strong level of collaboration on sanctions, as well as solid military and economic support to Ukraine.
  • The number of neutral countries has risen from 32 to 35 (now representing nearly 31% of the global population). Some previously Western-aligned countries, including Colombia, Turkey and Qatar, have moved into this category as their governments are seeking to reap economic benefits from engaging with both sides. However, both Russia and China are upping the ante in recruiting those countries that are non-aligned and neutral.

“Russia (and China) is courting non-aligned, neutral countries in a bid to sow doubt about the impacts of sanctions on Russia and to leverage resentment against former colonial powers. We believe that both countries will step up such efforts in the coming years, posing growing challenges for Western democracies and diplomacy, which have yet to grasp the full extent of this challenge.”

AGATHE DEMARAIS, GLOBAL FORECASTING DIRECTOR AT EIU
  • There has been a large shift in stance among countries that lean towards Russia, whose number has increased from 29 to 35. China remains the most significant country in this category, but other developing countries (notably South Africa, Mali and Burkina Faso) have also moved into this grouping, which accounts for 33% of the world’s population. These trends highlight Russia’s growing influence in Africa.

More economic and political analysis of the Russia-Ukraine conflict can be found in EIU Viewpoint, our new analysis service. EIU Viewpoint provides unmatched forecasts, analysis and data for nearly 200 countries, helping organisations identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.