Strong September retail data lift Q3 nowcast to 3.8 per cent Tue, 20th Oct 2020 Article tags Economy The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q3 2020 improved to 3.86% (quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, compared with 3.10% during the week ending 9th October. According to the EIU’s nowcast model, US GDP is predicted to expand by 1.19 % (quarter-on-quarter) in Q4 2020, weakening slightly from the nowcast of 1.27% the week before. Industrial production index and capacity utilization in the industrial sector declined marginally in comparison with the month of August — with both remaining below pre-pandemic levels.Retail sales improved by 1.9% (month-on-month) for September, marking the highest rise in the last 3 months.The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment and expectations improved for the month of October — above EIU nowcast model projections.October releases for diffusion indices presented a mixed picture. The Empire State manufacturing survey diffusion index weakened but the Philadelphia manufacturing survey diffusion index improved in comparison with September.Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to at 898,000 against 845,000 the week before — the highest in last two months. To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below. Data releases (last week) IndicatorsReference PeriodLatest dataPrevious dataEmpire State Manufacturing Survey, Seasonally adjusted diffusion indexSep (20’)10.5017.00Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey Current Activity Diffusion IndexOct (20’)32.3015.00Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey New OrdersOct (20’)42.6025.50Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Oct (20’)898.00849.00Industrial Production Index (SA, 2012=100)Sep (20’)101.50102.20Capacity Utilization: Industry (SA, Percent of Capacity)Sep (20’)71.5072.00Retail Sales & Food Services (SA, Mil.$)Oct (20’)549256.00538979.00University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (NSA, Q1-66=100)Oct (20’)81.2080.40University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions (NSA, Q1-66=100)Oct (20’)84.9087.80University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations (NSA, Q1-66=100)Oct (20’)78.8075.60 Data releases (current week) IndicatorsReference PeriodRelease DateNew Pvt Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit [Flash] (SAAR, Thous.Units)Sep (20’)20th Oct 2020Housing Starts (SAAR, Thous.Units)Sep (20’)20th Oct 2020Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Oct (20’)22nd Oct 2020US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Flash] [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion)Oct (20’)23rd Oct 2020US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Flash] [Latest Estimates incl Flash] (SA, 50 +=Expansion)Oct (20’)23rd Oct 2020 Contact us To find out more about The EIU’s Nowcasting capabilities, fill in the form below and a member of our team will contact you. Tue, 20th Oct 2020 Article tags Economy