Syria at crossroads after fall of Baathist regime

What’s happened?

After 61 years in power, the Baathist regime in Syria has fallen, following a swift offensive by a coalition of rebel groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Salafi armed organisation based in Idlib. The president, Bashar al-Assad, reportedly fled the country on December 8th, as Arab and Druze militias from the Daraa and Suwayda provinces advanced into country’s capital, Damascus, from the south. In the aftermath of the regime’s collapse, HTS and its allies have appointed Mohammed al-Bashir, the leader of the Idlib’s HTS-run National Salvation Government, as the new prime minister of Syria. He is expected to establish a transitional government, probably based on the principles outlined in UN Security Council resolution 2254 (2015). Even as a transitional government is formed, we remain highly sceptical about the new government’s ability to function effectively and cohesively, given limited resources and internal conflicts among the various rebel factions. Political and economic risks are expected to remain elevated in the medium term.

Why does it matter?

The collaboration among key rebel factions in their recent offensive against the Assad regime indicates a strong alignment of shared goals, which could positively influence the formation of a new government in the near future. HTS is likely to gain the support of local Arab militias, Druze groups, diverse rebel factions —including the US-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA)— and the Turkish-supported Syrian National Army (SNA). This coalition could provide a solid foundation for establishing a unity government. Concerns about HTS’s extreme Islamist ideology and its declared intention to establish an Islamic government in Syria are diminishing, at least for the time being. HTS’s leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Jolani, has been working to rebrand the group, fostering co-operation with various Christian, Alawite, Druze and other groups.

Nonetheless, any prospective government will encounter immediate economic and political challenges that will put its authority and stability to the test. Ongoing clashes between the Arab-dominated rebel coalition and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) present a significant risk. The SNA, bolstered by direct military support from Turkey, has initiated attacks on SDF positions following the regime’s collapse, including a ground offensive aimed at reclaiming the strategic city of Manbij. This situation could escalate into broader confrontations in northern Syria. In addition, unresolved issues regarding Kurdish autonomy and control over Syria’s oil resources will heighten tensions between any new government and Turkey on one side and the SDF and its US backers on the other.

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In the absence of a common adversary, deeper strategic and ideological rifts within the rebel coalition are likely to emerge. There is a high risk that HTS, capitalising on its military dominance and political influence, will attempt to monopolise the political transition and the formation of the government for its own purposes. Internal pressure may arise from HTS’s members and its close allies, such as the jihadi Turkistan Islamic Party in Syria, to establish an Islamic state. This shift will alienate non-Muslim factions and secular rebel groups, such as the FSA.

The ideological aspirations of HTS will also exacerbate Syria’s ongoing international isolation, a situation worsened by years of Western sanctions. This isolation poses immediate challenges for any new government concerning financing, trade and currency stability. Given that HTS is classified as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the US and other Western nations, and faces opposition from the UAE, Iran and other significant regional players, we do not expect any substantial financial or humanitarian aid inflows from the international community in the near future. This challenge may deepen existing internal divisions among religious and ethnically based rebel factions as they strive to satisfy their respective support bases in the face of dwindling resources.

What next?

As a new transitional government is established, probably structured along confessional and ethnic lines, we expect significant challenges in addressing the diverse interests of Syria’s competing factions. This struggle is highly likely to result in a prolonged period of political and economic instability. Although there are currently positive indicators stemming from the recent unity among the rebel groups, the overwhelming expectations placed on the new government, coupled with the numerous challenges it confronts, are likely to hinder its effectiveness. This situation may lead to recurring instances of in-fighting among the various armed factions within the country.

The analysis and forecasts presented in this article are drawn from EIU’s Country Analysis service. This comprehensive solution offers essential insights into the political and economic outlook of nearly 200 countries, empowering businesses to manage risks and develop effective strategies.