Technology and telecoms in 2022: geopolitical tensions

As part of our industry outlook for 2022, EIU has taken a look at the growth prospects, top risks and key trends facing the telecoms and technology sector next year.

The industry has weathered the coronavirus pandemic better than many others, despite supply-side disruption. Looking ahead to next year, business and investor attention will be focused on the 5G rollout, semiconductor shortages and widespread changes to cyber security regulations.

Technology and geopolitics are increasingly intertwined, with governments keen for their standards to become global. Regulatory tensions have already risen between the US, the EU and China around privacy, content, antitrust and artificial intelligence as competition intensifies. In 2022, we expect cyber security to be the main short-term risk every regulator will look to deal with.

Dexter Thillien, principal technology and telecoms analyst at EIU

Key things to watch for in 2022:

  • Tech regulation in the US and EU: 2022 should be a major year for technology regulation on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, the focus will be on implementing infrastructure plans contained in the multiple bills presented to Congress in 2021. In the EU, the legislative process will continue for the Digital Services and Digital Markets Acts, while the Commission will introduce new laws focusing on semiconductors and cyber security.
  • Nvidia/ARM deal off: When Nvidia bought ARM in September 2020, it gave itself 18 months to complete the deal. The deadline will be missed, but the stakes will rise in 2022.
  • 3GPP Release 17: The next 5G standard, Release 17, will be frozen by September 2022. It will provide improvements in terms of New Radio (NR) and network slicing, but the major changes will come in the areas of industrial internet of things (IoT) and ultra-reliable low-latency communications.
  • 3nm semiconductors: In the second half of the year, TSMC will start producing the latest generation of semiconductors, based on 3 nanometre (nm) technology.
  • Delays in India’s 5G Auction: Indian telecoms regulators are planning a 5G auction in March 2022 for spectrum across mid- and millimeter wave bands. This timeline will be pushed back to the end of the year, as the process in India involves multiple regulators and there is still no consensuson spectrum pricing, a process that typically takes 4-5 months.

For more insights into how the technology and telecoms sector will fare next year, download our “Technology and telecoms in 2022” report.