tourism industry

Tourism in 2022: a shaky recovery

As part of our industry outlook for 2022, EIU has taken a look at the growth prospects, top risks and key trends facing the tourism sector next year.

At a global level, international arrivals will recover some ground next year but still remain 30% below 2019 levels. Business travel will remain particularly depressed with business and differing levels of border control and variations in vaccine passports will continue to make international travel difficult.

Tourism has endured a terrible pandemic, and the bad news is that 2022 will only bring a partial recovery. Borders are reopening, but international travel will still be difficult. Compliance with climate-change regulations, as well as higher fuel prices and wages, will also push up air-travel costs in 2022. This will eventually lead to airline mergers, airport closures and higher ticket prices.

Swarup Gupta, industry manager at EIU

Key things to watch for in 2022:

  • The Red Sea Project will open to tourists: Phase 1 of Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea Project will be operational in 2022, although expansion will continue until it reaches the planned 8,000-room capacity expected by 2030.
  • Cruise industry gets out of the doldrums: After sinking in 2020-21, cruise bookings for 2022 have picked up as vaccine passports and health passes allow the reopening of international travel, albeit with increased documentation.
  • Tourist taxes will add to higher travel costs: Increased focus on sustainability will see some major tourist destinations cap daily visitor numbers (notably in the Italian city of Venice) or impose a tourist tax. Thailand will impose a US$15 tax in 2022; New Zealand is likely to adopt a similar approach.
  • Thailand will experiment to win back tourists: The South-east Asian country hopes that scrapping quarantine requirements will lead to a strong recovery in international arrivals in 2022. Its success will be good news for the tourism-dependent region, but we expect any recovery to be modest and significantly below pre-pandemic levels.

For more insights into how the tourism sector will fare next year, download our “Tourism in 2022” report.